Quotes of All Topics . Occasions . Authors
Uncertainty is a personal matter; it is not the uncertainty but your uncertainty.
It is dangerous to attach probability zero to anything other than a logical impossibility.
Whatever way uncertainty is approached, probability is the only sound way to think about it.
Utility is the emotion pleading to be let into the house of pure reason and thereby enriching it.
In teaching there can be too much emphasis on certainty and a proper appreciation of uncertainty is to be encouraged.
The grand assertion is that you must see the world through probability and that probability is the only guide you need.
Almost all thinking people agree that you should not have probability 1 (or 0) for any event, other than one demonstrable by logic, like 2 x 2 = 4.
Generally there is Stigler's law of eponymy that says that a scientific notion is never attributed to the right person; in particular, the law is not due to Stigler.
Consider the case of a person who holds a view with probability 1. Then coherence says that it is no use having a debate with them because nothing will change their mind.
It is not surprising that in talking about uncertainty we should lean heavily on facts, just as the court of law does when interrogating witnesses. Facts form a sort of bedrock on which we can build the shifting sands of uncertainty.
In my opinion, it helps enormously to know why something is true, rather than being told it is true, for why should you believe me? Never believe anything on the authority of a single person but seek confirmation - and reason is the best confirmation.
I believe that almost all important, useful ideas are simple. Peter Whittle has recently put it nicely in an autobiographical essay. "If a piece of work is heavy and complicated then it is wrong." . . . Some writers feel that to express their ideas in simple terms is degrading. Some use complexity to disguise the paucity of their material. In fact, simplicity is a virtue and when, as here, it is both original and useful, it can represent a real advance in knowledge.